Home Run Derby 2010: Odds & Preview

Monday night, four mildly famous sluggers from each league will compete to win the 2010 State Farm Home Run Derby, because there has to be some sort of baseball-related programming the night before the All-Star Game.  The festivities are scheduled to start around 8 PM EST from picturesque Anaheim.  Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera is a slight favorite at 11/4, just ahead of David Ortiz at 3/1 — although Papi is no doubt getting a lot of action from Red Sox Nationals betting their hearts.
Here’s a look at all eight competitors:


Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays (15/2) - third ASG, first HRD.  Vernon Wells has hit 19 long balls so far this year.  He hit a career-high 33 in 2003.  I think it would be a disgrace to America if he somehow won.

Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins (10/1) - making his third straight ASG and his first HRD appearance.  Hanley’s only hit 13 round-trippers through the first half, and his career high is 33 in 2008.  Not really a strictly power guy, but he should be a better bet than Chris Young at least.
 
Chris Young, Arizona Diamonbacks (10/1) - making his first All-Star and Home Run Derby.  Young has 15 home runs at the break.  He hit a career high 32 in 2007 in his first full big league season.

Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers (5/1) - It would be fun to bet on someone who wears his sunglasses at night, wouldn’t it?  This is Hart’s second All-Star appearance — he made his ASG debut in 2008 — and his first Home Run Derby.  Hart has a crazy 20 home runs at the break, almost to his career high of 24 in 2007.

Nick Swisher, New York Yankees (5/1) - first ASG, first HRD. Despite the best efforts of Senator John Kerry, Swisher is in Anaheim because of the internet intensity of Yankee fans, who will no doubt throw some money away on Swisher just because he wears pinstripes. Swisher has hit 15 home runs in the first half — no doubt helped by very hitter friendly New Yankee Stadium.  His career high was 35 dingers in 2006.

Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals (11/2) - fourth ASG, second HRD.  Holliday’s got 15 dingers this year, and hit a career-high 36 in 2007.  I think his power numbers have always been inflated by playing so long at Coors Field and now by batting behind Albert Pujols.  In the 2007 HRD, he made it to the semis, hitting 5 in the first round and then 8 in the semis.

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (11/4) - fifth ASG, second HRD. Miggy hit 9 in the first round of the 2007 Derby, but his 6 in the semifinals weren’t enough.  He’s got 22 taters at the break, and hit between 33 and 37 homers in all but one of the past six seasons. Should win, but also has a physique that doesn’t exactly scream stamina.

David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (3/1) - This is Papi’s sixth ASG and fourth HRD.  Ortiz tied for last with 3 home runs in 2004, not making it out of the first round.  In 2005 and 2006 he made it to the semis, hitting 17 and 10 in his two successful first rounds, but only 3 each in two semis.  Ortiz has hit 17 homers at the break this season.  His career high is 54 in 2006, but he’s only hit 28 and 23 the last two seasons.  My biggest concern with this 34-year-old Dominican legend is does he have the stamina?

tags: home run derby, 2010 home run derby contestants, 2010 home run derby, all star game, all star game 2010